Remember September

Recently, Brian Hunter, who we all must know by now, bet on a huge gain on natural gas, and ended losing 6 billion dollars in just 1 week. I want you to do the same, except don’t lose it. The 32 year old hedge fund manager bet that there will be a huge rally in natural gas, his reasoning i don’t know, but i think his timing was just a wee bit off.

I’ve been watching NG (Natural Gas) for a little while now, and have the technicals to show to you on the buying power everyone has. These Billions of dollars that were lost in the hedge funds are giving people and trust more of a reason to sell and short. This is driving NG prices down to lows we haven’t seen for a while.

I have reason to believe that NG has been oversold. So now its time to get in, while everyone is shorting it, while everyone is bashing it and saying “oh the NG & Oil boom is over, etc etc etc”. Remember: you buy into shorts and sell into Rallys. You buy when its ugly and sell when its nice. DONT buy when its infalted and sell when it deflates, like our friend Brian Hunter.

Check this technical analsys out.

In 2003, when summer came around.. The natural gas inventories were builing up higher and higher because a lack of demand, people do not need natural gas to heat their homes because it’s summer. So what happens?

Lets take a look..

Actually as i write this post i cannot even start to tell how you how late you will be to the game if you don’t get off your seat and buy some ECA APC AND CHK. I personally like all 3, but right now ECA is SO UNDERVALUED.

real quickly, look at the charts of the past years of Natural gas and figure out why we should remember september. I don’t have much time on my hands to explain why but Ntural Gas is a GREAT bet, and even a better bet because of the hedge fund incident. do not get scared BUU AND BUY!

2003 Data

2004 Data

2005 Data

EVERY YEAR, WINTER provided us that rally . Brian Hunter, SAME EXACT STRATEGY but the moron bought RISKY contracts and futures. Don’t let his mistakes fool you, do it the right way. Get some ECA then some APC and/or CHK both are great, but ECA will do GREAT!

Cheers
Josh

F For Fantastic, not for Fail.

I haven’t posted anything recently, due to the fact that i’ve been on a short term break from the market. It worked out perfectly for the slump in the market and all the inflation worries that came about and had the Dow drop below 11k.

But I’m back now, ready to make the turn-around i did a few months ago. For those of you wondering, the last post i had suggested to buy the best of breed at the ugliest timing. Here were the results:

VZ +9.81%
TM: +8.05%
MSFT +14.14%
C +3.47%
PG +7.95%
PFE +21.67%
CMCSA +9.19%
UST +23.39%

Total Return: 12.20% note: the Dow is not even back where it’s going to be after September.

Today, i’m looking at our fellow friend and buddy Ford. Here’s a fine example of our “best of breed” pick. Now, you may be thinking, “best of breed? it’s a horrible company!” and you see, that is where you are partially mistaken. Here is a little background information about Ford.

Henry Ford (July 30, 2003 – April 7, 1947) was the founder of the Ford Motor Company and father of the modern assembly line used in mass production. His introduction of the Model T automobile revolutionized transportation and American industry…..

However arch-rival General Motors jumped ahead in the 1920s by offering far more options to consumers in terms of power, prestige, styling, and convenient financing plans.

Basically, what I am trying to say here is the type of company Ford is. It’s been around forever. Heck, they were the ones to make cars. Those F-150’s, Mustangs, those are not going anywhere it is best selling American car year over year. So what will happen now that ford is losing so much money? Reconstruction.

Reconstruction is one of the best things that an investor can take advantage of. The company is trying to tell you “we are here by letting all investors know that our stock is going to get SUPER cheap, but once we fire all our employees and close all our plants and move them to a super cheap location and reconstruct our business, the stock will return to life.” how could you possibly say no?

Here is my analyses: Ford will die, Ford will be bashed, Ford will drop to $6.50 areas. That’s when we will start the buying process. The stock market will never tell you where the foundation of support is, but with earnings and actual postings of losses, you can do the basic math you were taught in elementary and figure where that support is. Start with a buy back process. Buy a little of Ford slowly, wait till it goes down and buy some more. BE AWARE: When it goes down this is an opportunity! DO NO PANIC. Each time it goes down, think of it as a time to refinance your stock for a better interest rate, or here a better rate of return.

What may end up happening at worst or even best:

GM will say, “Hey, we’ve been in a huge fight with our rivalry Ford forever, and now it looks like this thing is getting kind of cheap, why don’t we try to make an offer.” You think thats impossible?

What about At&T & SBC? Whirlpool & Maytag? And the many big multi million/billion dollar companies who have already done it. Nothing is impossible. If this happens, the demand of the stock will go up, and prices will been driven up, Ford may be too much pride fixed to say “yes” to the offer so GM will try to offer again, or buy into their stock. And that’s exactly what we want. Ford is too big of a company for it to be gone. It is way too large for it to say “OK we’re done”. I compare the Auto companies to the telephone companies sometimes because of the nature of the market.. IT SUCKS. Everything is so dependent of consumers and world matters, i hate that. But when AT&T dropped to an all time low, SBC came out and said, “Oh my! AT&T our biggest competitor has become so damned cheap!” And what they did made some investors millions.

Lets not slip away from this opportunity.

Cheers!

Josh