Before I start this post, I want to Cleary make sure you understand that I am in no such way a capitalist when it comes to lives of other people. Hurricane season will hopefully not cause any damage to businesses and residence & most importantly people's lives and families. However, at the same time I believe I have the right to hedge myself higher costs of energy and gas prices that our projected 'major' hurricane season 2006 will cause.
To start off, I’m sure you have all listened to me regarding Iran and its oil powers. If you did, you should be in a very nice gain. For those of you who are eating themselves, you may have not missed the boat yet as I still firmly stand behind my predictions that oil will be $100 / barrel. I'm not going to go into all the details now, but rather show 1 of the 2 factors that will bring up those prices in the barrel and the pump. (If you want to know the first factor, read my 2nd post about Iran).
Here are my thoughts:
June 1st, 2006
"The Season Ahead"
NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Residents in Hurricane Prone Areas Urged to Make Preparations
"Experts say the 2006 season could be another very active one. The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calls for 13-16 total storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator."
If you ask me, that’s ugly.
So what am I going to do?
Invest in oil.
Why?
Well let us take a closer look:
With this picture, you can see where most US oil refineries are located (shame isn't it?) right next to the gulf of Mexico where hurricane's Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William all with form (For more info on hurricane names check this out – http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news) This particular hurricane that you see on the picture was Hurricane Rita, which damaged a lot of refineries as you can see it travel through the North-Western territory.
Most of the refineries in that map are located in the North & North-Western area of the gulf.
Here's a closer look:
Look at this picture closely. Louisiana is the biggest refinery state we've got out there. If a hurricane hits that area, I think we should see at least $80 a barrel of oil. In today’s news, Iran has "accepted" the White House’s "package" and seem like they want to cool and negotiate nuclear talks. In the news today as well, we've started to see our first hurricane form today in the Gulf of Mexico but luckily, the projected path is not going anywhere near our oil refineries.
Here's a picture of the projected path Hurricane Alberta is believed to take.
Now from this early projected path (which is just predictions based on some theory and fact) it seems that Alberta will have no affect on oil refineries in the North. From here, this looks like it is traveling towards the east over to Florida.
let me remind you – Hurricanes have a mind of their own, I’ve seen some wild things last year in hurricane season, I’m not saying that this will turn around suddenly at head north but keep in mind, if this does go north we're in trouble. This is why I stress that if you want to hedge yourself against the high oil prices (or just want to make money) you should use this week as oil prices SHOULD drop on Iran nuclear treaty & Hurricane Alberta heading away from the North.
Hope that all made sense in some way
Cheers
Josh
